Jul
25
Rachel just alright, Devil May Care impressive
by Barry Roos
Published: July 25, 2010 13 Comments
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Rachel Alexandra was put in a spot she could not lose. Last year she faced the boys in a Classic and older males in Grade One Competition. Now she runs in a non graded stake against a lackluster bunch. Obviously her connections know she is not nearly the same horse as last year. So they are trying to build her up slowly, a step at a time. I respect that. That is a trainer’s job. The comparisons to Zenyatta have quieted down, but the excitement around RA has not. Monmouth broke their non-haskell or breeders’ cup record handling over 11 million.
Yesterday before the race the TVG commentators were wondering aloud if she could win by 18 or so lengths. After all this was a handpicked bunch. It looked early on like Rachel would blow by and win at will, but that wasn’t the case. Queen Martha ran game and Rachel Alexandra had to work to get by a bit. She lugged in a little as well upon going by. In her 2 losses she was a tad hesitant to switch leads, making you think that she is not 100% physically. Still she is a force, and at some point she will take on the tougher animals and we will see if she still has “it”. I don’t think anyone watching racing yesterday could feel confident that Rachel Alexandra could beat Devil May Care, never mind Zenyatta. Which brings me to Devil May Care, WOW. John Velasquez spent more time looking around then he did riding. The filly blew by and won the Coaching Club American Oaks easily, it was the way we expected Rachel Alexandra to win. The buzz before the Derby was all about Devil May Care. I was in attendance that day and she was the one people were talking about. As Todd Pletcher said after in the BloodHorse:
“You can see by the way that she won today why we tried the Kentucky Derby”
Yes Todd, I think we can see that. Not that Pletcher needs to explain himself, having a year for the ages. Next week he goes for yet another big win with Super Saver in the Haskell. Monmouth continues to have a fabulous meet, and continues to attract more top horses.
One thing is for sure, we have yet another top filly, Rachel and Zenyatta are still going, and we could have an amazing race down the road. The interesting thing to me is how good Devil May Care could be. Imagine if Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta go at it and the winner of the race is not either of them but Devil May Care?
Who says racing is dull?
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Beyers from yesterday:
Devil May Care – 96
Rachel Alexandra – 110
Good point Petey. The point is what a joke the Beyer numbers are. Time for the form to go with a far better algorithm than the joke system Beyer has been selling. There is no one who saw both races with any experience in the industry who aren’t laughing at those numbers today. The reason google’s search is always improving is because they have PHDs working on the algorithm and improving it all the time. Time to do the same for the form, not just putting out the same crap year after year.
It always amazes me how Zenyatta can win her last race by half length (and almost not get there) against horses she should have easily beat and she remains the greatest thing ever while Rachel wins by 3 over horses she should have easily beat and yet continues to be overrated/a has been/your choice of adjective. Even her previous race, which Rachel won by 10 1/2, received much the same reaction.
Devil May Care’s time was only 3/10th of a second quicker and according to the announcers the track Rachel ran over was pretty dead all day. How accurate that is I don’t know, but I’m not sure if they had been in the same race yesterday Devil May Care would win as easy as you make it sound.
Devil May Care could not beat Rachel Alexandra with a head start.
“…..Devil May Care could not beat Rachel Alexandra with a head start.”
I’d take that bet. Do you think they have been ducking top competition for the hell of it? They know Rachel is not the same as last year. They are trying desperately to get her back in form by beating up on lesser foes. You can like Rachel without being ridiculous. And knocking Zenyatta? Come on, grow up.
Where did I say anything bad about Zenyatta? I was pointing out that there is clearly a double standard. I’ve never seen anyone speak poorly of Zenyatta’s winning margins. Zenyatta has never won by double digits (or came close to double digits) yet it is expected of Rachel. Why? Because she races closer to the pace? So what?
Nick,
Zenyatta is a closer…and obviously a smart horse. She does what she needs to do to win, and not much more.
Rachel is a brilliant runner with a high cruising rate. If you ask her, she will run as fast as she can. That makes for larger winning distances, but look at her times…yes, last year too. She’s amazingly consistent. On fair tracks she runs 9 furlongs in 1:48 and change. Throw more weight on her this year, and she’s a tad slower. That’s what the weight is designed to do!
Throw more weight on Zenyatta, and she still gets up and wins. Zenyatta is one of the best race mares ever. Rachel wasn’t even the best horse in two of her victories over colts last year. Without the weight break, Mine That Bird, Musket Man and Macho Again all would have beaten her.
It’s not a knock on her…it’s a simple fact. At equal weights on a fair dirt surface, Zenyatta gets up and beats RA with energy to spare.
Regarding those recent Beyer’s (RA’s 110/105 and Devil May Care’s 96)…Andy…get a grip buddy. There were 2, 6 furlong MSW races on dirt for three year olds and up run at both Saratoga and Monmouth last Saturday. The slowest winning time came from – envelope please – Saratoga! The fastest winning time also came from Saratoga. But the average times were only 0.75 seconds apart.
Devil May Care runs faster than Rachel by 0.36 seconds – almost two lengths – and gets a 96 to RA’s 110/105! Please. If Beyer speed figures are used AT ALL to help determine HOY, or eclipse champions, it is a travesty.
Very Well said Gary. Beyer has become more and more irrelevant.
Beyer’s are irrelevant? Ok, then look at BRIS… oh wait. Can’t use those cuz they make Rachel look better than what you folks think she is. Hmm, ok, let’s look at Thorograph. Nope nope… can’t discuss those because they make her performance look better than it was visually according to you folks. Okay then how about Ragozins? Yeah, surely that’ll show everybody that Rachel isn’t good. Oh crap… those too make her better than you’re willing to admit and actually show she isn’t washed up. Fine then, how about RPRs. Uh oh… No way… they make Rachel look like Zenyatta’s equal performance wise this year.
Maybe you folks should wake up to reality – Rachel really is that good.
Is she that good? She didn’t look it at Monmouth, that was the weakest field that a former horse of the year has ever faced. She is no where near the same as last year. You don’t need figures of any kind to see that. You Nancy need a reality check, just because you like the animal, doesn’t mean you blindly have to follow the pack. Her next race will say more.
I agree Nick Rachel is WAY under rated-Zenyatta WAY over rated Zenyatta can barely beat horses you’d expect a horse thats rated like her to murder-OK come on a head victory afte a STRETCH BATTLE with a horse HALF HER SIZE COME ON shes WAY OVER RATED Rachel wins ALOT EASIER than her over a track thats DEAD-she fights on when shes got NOTHING left in the tannk-Calvin Borel said both her losses this year she had nothing left in the tank by the time they hit the stretch!! yet she still fought on as hard as she possibly can-both horses give more than 110% every time out-Zenyatta’s just not the horse they say she is
I agree with you also Nancy-you people need a reality check-Rachel’s back to were she was last year-Calvin whipped her once or twice then put the whip up in the Lady’s Secret-whereas Zenyatta got whipped atleast 5 times in the last 1/16-Mike Smith-she stalls once she hits the lead-excuses excuses she didnt stall once-she didnt get far enough out in the lead to realize she was leading-she only made up a neck in the last 1/8-at the 1/8 pole she was behind by a head-what do yall think about that?Zenyatta gets hit 5 times in the last 1/16 and wins by a head-Rachel gets hit 1 or 2 times, drifts in and still wins by an easy 3 lengths
Serena
How can you say an undefeated horse is overrated? You may like Rachel better, but it is difficult to say she is better. She has been beaten twice this year, and her last race was not dominating against a field of non graded types. Also, why can’t you like one without disparaging the other?